North Carolina's 11th Congressional District
55%
GOP
45%Dem
▲ R +4% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +1.6·80% of simulations: R +21.5 to D +18.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +1.6
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 45%
GOP 55%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+10 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jamie Ager
Republican Jennifer Balkcom