North Carolina's 11th Congressional District
75%
Dem
25%GOP
▲ D+21% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+9.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+1.4
National Environment
current political climate
D+10.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+2.0
Forecasted margin
D+4.3
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Poll Vault | Oct 14, 2026 | D+13 | LV |
| Public Policy Polling The BenchDemocratic | Sep 11, 2026 | D+3 | RV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 75%
GOP 25%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+10 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jamie Ager
Republican Jennifer Balkcom