Kansas Senate
95%
GOP
5%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +16.3·80% of simulations: R +28.9 to R +3.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +14.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.7
Forecasted margin
R +16.3
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | Apr 27, 2026 | R +4 | 500 | lv |
| Tavern Research | Jan 28, 2026 | R +10 | 1,013 | lv |
| Tavern Research | Jan 28, 2026 | R +8 | 1,013 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 5%
R 95%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+16).
- Candidates
- Sandy Sidel Neumann (D) Roger Marshall (R) (inc.)