Kansas Senate
92%
GOP
8%Dem
▲ D +3% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +9.9·80% of simulations: R +19.1 to R +0.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +14.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +2.0
Forecasted margin
R +9.9
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | Aug 16, 2026 | D +1 | 800 | lv |
| GBAO | Jul 13, 2026 | R +4 | 600 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 8%
GOP 92%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- R+16 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Adam Hamilton
Republican Roger Marshall (inc.)