Kansas Senate

55%

GOP

45%Dem

Tossup

▲ R+2% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+0.780% of simulations: R+7.8 to D+6.5

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+14.5

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+5.7

National Environment

current political climate

D+4.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+3.8

Forecasted margin

R+0.7

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
InsiderAdvantage	Oct 14, 2026	R+1	LV
InsiderAdvantage	Oct 10, 2026	D+1	LV
GBAO Adam HamiltonDemocratic	Oct 4, 2026	D+5	LV
YouGov	Oct 4, 2026	D+3	LV
Trafalgar GroupRepublican	Oct 1, 2026	D+1	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 45%

GOP 55%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Tossup Inside Elections Tilt R Sabato Tossup

PVI

R+16 This state leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Adam Hamilton

Republican Roger Marshall (inc.)