Kansas's 2nd Congressional District

▲ R+1% since last week
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+17.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+4.2
National Environment
current political climate
D+7.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+3.2
Forecasted margin
R+11.4

What Changes the Forecast

We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.

Polls

Polls (1)

Race polls
PollsterDateMarginPopulation
DCCC Targeting TeamDemocraticOct 20, 2026R+3LV
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 8%
GOP 92%
Race Details
Expert ratings
Cook Likely R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Likely R
PVI
R+19 This district leans strongly Republican.
Candidates

Democrat Don Coover

Republican Derek Schmidt (inc.)