Kansas Governor
78%
GOP
22%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +5.0·80% of simulations: R +13.4 to D +3.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +17.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +6.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.9
Forecasted margin
R +5.0
What Changes the Forecast
Everything agrees. Politics may yet find a way to make this weird.
Polls
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Oct 4, 2026 | R +3 | 2,252 | lv |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 30, 2026 | R +4 | 605 | lv |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 24, 2026 | R +4 | 500 | lv |
| Emerson College | Sep 16, 2026 | R +7 | 750 | lv |
| Global Strategy Group | Sep 16, 2026 | D +3 | 800 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 22%
GOP 78%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+16 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Cindy Holscher
Republican Ty Masterson
- Seat context
- Open seat: Laura Kelly is term-limited.