Kansas's 1st Congressional District
100%
GOP
0%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +26.9·80% of simulations: R +37.2 to R +16.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +28.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +26.9
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 0%
GOP 100%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+32 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Lauren Reinhold
Republican Tracey Mann (inc.)