Alabama Senate
100%
GOP
0%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +21.3·80% of simulations: R +30.0 to R +12.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +26.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.8
Forecasted margin
R +21.3
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| yes. every kid. foundation. | Jul 11, 2026 | R +15 | 601 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 0%
GOP 100%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- R+30 This is a safe Republican state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Everett Wess
Republican Barry Moore
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of Alabama.