Alabama Senate

100%

GOP

0%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+21.380% of simulations: R+28.0 to R+14.7

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+26.7

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+0.3

National Environment

current political climate

D+3.4

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+1.7

Forecasted margin

R+21.3

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Cygnal Alabama Daily News, Gray Television	Oct 17, 2026	R+15	LV
The Alabama Poll	Oct 16, 2026	R+21	LV
RMG Research Alabama Policy Action, Napolitan News ServiceRepublican	Sep 25, 2026	R+21	RV
yes. every kid. foundation.	Jul 11, 2026	R+15	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 0%

GOP 100%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

PVI

R+30 This is a safe Republican state.

Candidates

Democrat Everett Wess

Republican Barry Moore

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of Alabama.