Alabama Governor
99%
GOP
1%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +19.3·80% of simulations: R +28.0 to R +10.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +32.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +4.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +4.7
Forecasted margin
R +19.3
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG Research | Sep 25, 2026 | R +13 | 800 | rv |
| RMG Research (Napolitan News Service) | Sep 25, 2026 | R +13 | 800 | rv |
| yes. every kid. foundation. | Jul 11, 2026 | R +8 | 601 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 1%
GOP 99%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+30 This is a safe Republican state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Doug Jones
Republican Tommy Tuberville
- Seat context
- Open seat: Kay Ivey is term-limited.