Alabama's 2nd Congressional District

64%

GOP

36%Dem

Lean R

▲ D+9% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+2.280% of simulations: R+10.6 to D+6.1

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+12.0

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+0.5

National Environment

current political climate

D+9.0

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+0.3

Forecasted margin

R+2.2

What Changes the Forecast

We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
DCCC Targeting TeamDemocratic	Jul 30, 2026	Even	LV
Impact Research DCCCDemocratic	Jun 25, 2026	R+1	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 36%

GOP 64%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean R Inside Elections Lean R Sabato Lean R

PVI

R+13 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Shomari C. Figures (inc.)

Republican Rhett Marques

Notes

District recently redrawn