Alabama's 2nd Congressional District
79%
GOP
21%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +6.6·80% of simulations: R +17.8 to D +4.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +12.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.8
Forecasted margin
R +6.6
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting Team | Jul 30, 2026 | Even | 421 | lv |
| Impact Research | Jun 25, 2026 | R +1 | 400 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 21%
GOP 79%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+13 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Shomari C. Figures (inc.)
Republican Rhett Marques
- Notes
- District recently redrawn