Illinois Senate
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+11.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+2.5
National Environment
current political climate
D+4.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
R+0.6
Forecasted margin
D+18.1
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | Oct 20, 2026 | D+17 | LV |
| Public Policy Polling Chicago News Weekly | Oct 1, 2026 | D+13 | RV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+13 This state leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Juliana Stratton
Republican Don Tracy
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.