Illinois Senate
99%
Dem
1%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +18.4·80% of simulations: D +9.9 to D +26.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +11.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +2.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +18.4
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No statewide polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- D+13 This state leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Juliana Stratton
Republican Don Tracy
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.