Illinois's 8th Congressional District
96%
Dem
4%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+8.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+1.3
National Environment
current political climate
D+10.4
Polls
polling in similar districts
Even
Forecasted margin
D+20.0
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 96%
GOP 4%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+9 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Melissa Bean
Republican Jennifer Davis
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.