Illinois's 8th Congressional District
95%
Dem
5%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +19.3·80% of simulations: D +4.8 to D +33.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +8.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +2.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +19.3
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 95%
GOP 5%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+9 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Melissa Bean
Republican Jennifer Davis
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.