Illinois's 4th Congressional District
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+30.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+4.6
National Environment
current political climate
D+6.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.3
Forecasted margin
D+32.7
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group Independent Center | Aug 3, 2026 | D+19 | RV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+33 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Patty Garcia
Republican Lupe Castillo
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.