Illinois's 4th Congressional District
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +33.0·80% of simulations: D +25.2 to D +40.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +30.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.7
Forecasted margin
D +33.0
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group | Aug 3, 2026 | D +19 | 653 | rv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+33 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Patty Garcia
Republican Lupe Castillo
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.