Illinois's 6th Congressional District
96%
Dem
4%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +20.7·80% of simulations: D +6.9 to D +34.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +6.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +5.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +20.7
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 96%
GOP 4%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+7 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Sean Casten (inc.)
Republican Niki Conforti