Alaska Senate
52%
GOP
48%Dem
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +0.3·80% of simulations: R +8.7 to D +8.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +11.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +5.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +2.2
Forecasted margin
R +0.3
What Changes the Forecast
The polls are at odds with the fundamentals. We need a little more of everything.
Polls
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 23, 2026 | D +1 | 1,495 | lv |
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 5, 2026 | D +2 | 1,371 | lv |
| Data for Progress | Aug 4, 2026 | D +6 | 567 | lv |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 29, 2026 | R +2 | 593 | lv |
| Alaska Survey Research | Jun 7, 2026 | D +5 | 1,393 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 48%
GOP 52%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- R+13 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Mary Peltola
Republican Dan Sullivan (inc.)
- Notes
- Ranked-choice voting