Alaska Senate

66%

GOP

34%Dem

Lean R

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +4.2·80% of simulations: R +17.2 to D +8.9

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +11.6

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +3.1

National Environment

current political climate

D +2.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +1.7

Forecasted margin

R +4.2

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Alaska Survey Research	May 17, 2026	D +5	1,401	lv
Alaska Survey Research	Apr 19, 2026	D +7	1,946	lv
Alaska Survey Research	Mar 22, 2026	D +5	1,340	rv
Alaska Survey Research	Mar 22, 2026	D +5	1,340	rv
Alaska Survey Research	Mar 22, 2026	D +5	1,340	rv

What Changes the Forecast

The polls are at odds with the fundamentals. We need a little more of everything.

Forecast Over Time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 34%

R 66%

Race Details