Alaska Senate

63%

Dem

37%GOP

Lean D

▲ D+2% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+2.480% of simulations: R+7.7 to D+12.5

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+11.6

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+7.8

National Environment

current political climate

D+4.8

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+1.4

Forecasted margin

D+2.4

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Data for Progress	Oct 16, 2026	D+2	LV
InsiderAdvantage	Oct 10, 2026	D+2	LV
Alaska Survey Research	Oct 3, 2026	D+2	LV
The New York Times/Siena University	Oct 1, 2026	D+7	LV
Quantus Insights	Sep 30, 2026	Even	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 63%

GOP 37%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Tossup Inside Elections Tossup Sabato Lean D

PVI

R+13 This state leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Mary Peltola

Republican Dan Sullivan (inc.)

Notes

Ranked-choice voting