Alaska Senate
63%
GOP
37%Dem
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +2.3·80% of simulations: R +13.6 to D +8.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +11.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +4.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +2.4
Polls
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 29, 2026 | R +2 | 593 | lv |
| Alaska Survey Research | Jun 7, 2026 | D +5 | 1,393 | lv |
| Alaska Survey Research | May 17, 2026 | D +5 | 1,401 | lv |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 19, 2026 | D +7 | 1,946 | lv |
| Alaska Survey Research | Mar 22, 2026 | D +5 | 1,340 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 37%
GOP 63%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+13).
- Candidates
- Mary Peltola (D) Dan Sullivan (R) (inc.)
- Notes
- Ranked-choice voting