Alaska's At-Large Congressional District

82%

GOP

18%Ind

Likely R

▲ R +1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +7.9·80% of simulations: R +19.5 to D +3.6

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +11.9

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +3.8

National Environment

current political climate

I +7.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

I +0.2

Forecasted margin

R +7.9

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Tavern Research	May 27, 2026	R +10	452	lv

Forecast Over Time

Ind (purple) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Ind 18%

GOP 82%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Likely R Inside Elections Likely R Sabato Likely R

District lean

R+13 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Independent Bill Hill

Republican Nicholas Begich (inc.)

Notes

Ranked-choice voting