Alaska's At-Large Congressional District

86%

GOP

13%Ind

Likely R

Other candidates

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+7.480% of simulations: R+16.3 to D+1.5

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+11.9

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+6.6

National Environment

current political climate

I+9.0

Polls

recent state and district polling

I+2.1

Forecasted margin

R+7.4

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Data for Progress	Oct 16, 2026	R+2	LV
Alaska Survey Research	Oct 3, 2026	R+5	LV
The New York Times/Siena University	Oct 1, 2026	R+6	LV
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research AARP	Sep 11, 2026	R+14	LV
The Bullfinch Group Independent Leadership Council	Sep 6, 2026	R+4	LV

Forecast Over Time

Ind (purple) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Ind 13%

GOP 86%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean R Inside Elections Likely R Sabato Likely R

PVI

R+13 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Independent Bill Hill

Republican Nick Begich III (inc.)

Notes

Ranked-choice voting