Alaska At-Large

91%

GOP

9%Dem

Likely R

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +11.7·80% of simulations: R +22.8 to R +0.6

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +11.9

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +1.5

National Environment

current political climate

D +2.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

R +0.9

Forecasted margin

R +11.7

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Tavern Research	May 27, 2026	R +10	452	lv
Change Research	Mar 20, 2026	R +27	624	lv
Public Policy Polling	Feb 12, 2026	R +7	600	lv
Data for Progress	Oct 23, 2025	R +11	823	lv
Data for Progress	Jul 27, 2025	R +10	678	lv

What Changes the Forecast

The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.

Forecast Over Time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 9%

R 91%

Race Details