Alaska's At-Large Congressional District
90%
GOP
10%Ind
▲ I +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +9.8·80% of simulations: R +21.8 to D +2.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +11.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.6
National Environment
current political climate
I +4.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
I +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +9.8
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | May 27, 2026 | R +10 | 452 | lv |
| Data for Progress | Jul 27, 2025 | R +10 | 678 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Ind (purple) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Ind 10%
GOP 90%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+13).
- Candidates
- Bill Hill (I) Nicholas Begich (R) (inc.)
- Notes
- Ranked-choice voting