Louisiana Senate

99%

GOP

1%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+17.180% of simulations: R+24.7 to R+9.5

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+19.4

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+3.7

National Environment

current political climate

D+3.7

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+2.3

Forecasted margin

R+17.1

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies Jamie DavisDemocratic	Sep 19, 2026	R+4	LV
Public Policy Polling Jamie DavisDemocratic	Jul 22, 2026	R+4	RV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 1%

GOP 99%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

PVI

R+22 This is a safe Republican state.

Candidates

Democrat Jamie Davis

Republican Julia Letlow