Louisiana's 5th Congressional District
99%
GOP
1%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+30.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+2.3
National Environment
current political climate
D+6.3
Polls
polling in similar districts
D+0.5
Forecasted margin
R+26.0
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 1%
GOP 99%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+33 This is a safe Republican district.
- Notes
- District recently redrawn
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate. Redrawn for 2026 under SB121. Forecast uses the current district lines. Louisiana holds an all-candidate primary November 3. If no candidate clears a majority of the vote, the top two advance to a December 12 runoff.