Michigan Senate
71%
Dem
29%GOP
▲ R+2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+0.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+2.7
National Environment
current political climate
D+6.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
R+0.7
Forecasted margin
D+3.0
What Changes the Forecast
The national mood is doing most of the work. A big shift or some new polling might move it.
Polls
Polls (46)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 22, 2026 | D+1 | LV |
| Marist University | Oct 18, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 10, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
| The Tyson Group Alliance for a Better FutureRepublican | Oct 8, 2026 | R+2 | LV |
| Quantus Insights | Oct 6, 2026 | D+1 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 71%
GOP 29%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+0 This is a highly competitive, evenly split state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed
Republican Mike Rogers
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.