Michigan Senate
63%
Dem
37%GOP
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +2.3·80% of simulations: R +8.7 to D +13.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +0.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.5
Forecasted margin
D +2.3
Polls
Polls (51)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | Jun 30, 2026 | D +1 | 947 | lv |
| Quantus Insights | Jun 30, 2026 | R +1 | 947 | lv |
| Quantus Insights | Jun 30, 2026 | D +1 | 947 | lv |
| Wedgewood Polls | Jun 28, 2026 | D +5 | 602 | lv |
| Wedgewood Polls | Jun 28, 2026 | Even | 602 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 63%
GOP 37%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split state (R+0).
- Candidates
- Haley Stevens (D) Mike Rogers (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.