Michigan Senate

65%

Dem

35%GOP

Lean D

▲ D +2% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +2.4·80% of simulations: R +5.6 to D +10.4

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +0.3

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +3.2

National Environment

current political climate

D +5.7

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +0.2

Forecasted margin

D +2.4

What Changes the Forecast

We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Abacus Data	Aug 28, 2026	D +5	332	lv
EPIC-MRA	Aug 28, 2026	D +4	600	lv
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov	Aug 20, 2026	D +5	779	lv
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.	Aug 17, 2026	D +7	800	rv
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research	Aug 11, 2026	D +1	877	lv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 65%

GOP 35%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Tossup Inside Elections Tossup Sabato Tossup

State lean

R+0 This is a highly competitive, evenly split state.

Candidates

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed

Republican Mike Rogers

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.