Michigan's 7th Congressional District
72%
Dem
28%GOP
▲ D+7% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+0.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+9.0
National Environment
current political climate
D+12.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.7
Forecasted margin
D+3.4
What Changes the Forecast
The national mood is doing most of the work. A big shift or some new polling might move it.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 14, 2026 | D+8 | LV |
| Global Strategy Group House Majority PACDemocratic | Aug 13, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
| Data for Progress William LawrenceDemocratic | Jun 30, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 72%
GOP 28%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+1 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat William Lawrence
Republican Tom Barrett (inc.)