Michigan's 7th Congressional District
59%
Dem
41%GOP
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +2.2·80% of simulations: R +10.3 to D +14.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +0.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +7.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +2.2
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | Jun 30, 2026 | D +2 | 772 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 59%
GOP 41%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+1 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat William Lawrence
Republican Tom Barrett (inc.)