Michigan's 7th Congressional District
54%
Dem
46%GOP
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +0.7·80% of simulations: R +10.3 to D +11.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +0.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.2
Forecasted margin
D +0.7
Polls
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | Jun 30, 2026 | D +2 | 772 | lv |
| Data for Progress | Jun 30, 2026 | R +1 | 772 | lv |
| Data for Progress | Jun 30, 2026 | R +1 | 772 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 25, 2026 | D +1 | 519 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 25, 2026 | D +1 | 519 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 54%
GOP 46%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split district (R+1).
- Candidates
- Bridget Brink (D) Tom Barrett (R) (inc.)