Michigan's 10th Congressional District
55%
GOP
45%Dem
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +1.0·80% of simulations: R +13.9 to D +11.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +4.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
R +1.0
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Jan 17, 2026 | R +2 | 592 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jan 17, 2026 | R +2 | 592 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jan 17, 2026 | D +2 | 592 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 45%
GOP 55%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+5).
- Candidates
- Eric Chung (D) Robert Lulgjuraj (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of Michigan.