Michigan's 10th Congressional District
61%
Dem
39%GOP
▲ D+1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+4.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+5.2
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
R+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+1.7
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group House Majority PACDemocratic | Aug 13, 2026 | Even | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 61%
GOP 39%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+5 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Christina Bertrand Hines
Republican Michael Bouchard
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of Michigan.