Michigan's 10th Congressional District
56%
GOP
44%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +1.7·80% of simulations: R +15.7 to D +12.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +4.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
R +1.7
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Jan 17, 2026 | R +2 | 592 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jan 17, 2026 | R +2 | 592 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jan 17, 2026 | D +2 | 592 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
This is a textbook coin flip. If the polls start to suggest otherwise, that makes things interesting.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 44%
R 56%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+5).
- Candidates
- Eric Chung (D) Robert Lulgjuraj (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of Michigan.