Michigan's 10th Congressional District
55%
Dem
45%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +1.1·80% of simulations: R +11.0 to D +13.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +4.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.2
Forecasted margin
D +1.1
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | Aug 13, 2026 | Even | 600 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 55%
GOP 45%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+5 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Christina Bertrand Hines
Republican Michael Bouchard
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of Michigan.