Michigan's 11th Congressional District
98%
Dem
2%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +24.2·80% of simulations: D +11.3 to D +37.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +15.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +24.2
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 98%
GOP 2%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+17 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jeremy Moss
Republican Ethan Baker
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.