Michigan Governor
91%
Dem
9%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +8.9·80% of simulations: D +0.5 to D +17.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +0.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +3.0
Forecasted margin
D +8.9
What Changes the Forecast
The national mood is doing most of the work. A big shift or some new polling might move it.
Polls
Polls (28)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedgewood Polls | Oct 9, 2026 | D +10 | 607 | lv |
| YouGov | Oct 4, 2026 | D +3 | 3,949 | lv |
| Z to A Research | Oct 1, 2026 | D +10 | 483 | lv |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Oct 1, 2026 | D +7 | 682 | lv |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Sep 28, 2026 | D +9 | 1,028 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 91%
GOP 9%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+0 This is a highly competitive, evenly split state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jocelyn Benson
Republican John James
- Seat context
- Open seat: Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited.