Michigan's 4th Congressional District
68%
GOP
32%Dem
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +3.4·80% of simulations: R +14.8 to D +7.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +4.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.5
Forecasted margin
R +3.4
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | Jun 1, 2026 | D +3 | 500 | lv |
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 14, 2026 | R +6 | 400 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 21, 2025 | R +2 | 559 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 32%
GOP 68%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+5).
- Candidates
- Sean McCann (D) William Huizenga (R) (inc.)