Michigan's 4th Congressional District
72%
GOP
28%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +6.2·80% of simulations: R +20.0 to D +7.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +4.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +6.2
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 14, 2026 | R +6 | 400 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 21, 2025 | R +2 | 559 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 28%
R 72%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+5).
- Candidates
- Sean McCann (D) William Huizenga (R) (inc.)