Michigan's 4th Congressional District
60%
GOP
40%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +1.9·80% of simulations: R +12.1 to D +8.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +4.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +7.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +1.9
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | Jun 1, 2026 | D +3 | 500 | lv |
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 14, 2026 | R +6 | 400 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 40%
GOP 60%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+5 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Sean McCann
Republican William Huizenga (inc.)