Michigan's 4th Congressional District
53%
Dem
47%GOP
▲ D+1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+4.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+6.7
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+0.5
What Changes the Forecast
This could go either way. A small polling shift might flip the whole thing.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO Sean McCannDemocratic | Sep 16, 2026 | D+1 | LV |
| GBAO Sean McCannDemocratic | Jun 1, 2026 | D+3 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 53%
GOP 47%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+5 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Sean McCann
Republican Bill Huizenga (inc.)