Michigan's 8th Congressional District
89%
Dem
11%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +15.1·80% of simulations: R +0.7 to D +30.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +2.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +7.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +15.1
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 89%
GOP 11%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+3 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet (inc.)
Republican Thomas J. Smith