Michigan's 5th Congressional District
99%
GOP
1%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +23.8·80% of simulations: R +35.1 to R +12.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +24.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +23.8
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 1%
GOP 99%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+26 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Christian Vukasovich
Republican Timothy Walberg (inc.)