Massachusetts Senate
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +24.0·80% of simulations: D +16.3 to D +31.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +25.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.5
Forecasted margin
D +24.0
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Polls
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 24, 2026 | D +19 | 906 | lv |
| YouGov | Aug 12, 2026 | D +21 | 800 | rv |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23, 2026 | D +16 | 623 | lv |
| Suffolk University | Jun 12, 2026 | D +25 | 500 | rv |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 20, 2026 | D +23 | 603 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- D+28 This is a safe Democrat state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Ed Markey (inc.)
Republican John Deaton