Massachusetts Senate
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +23.9·80% of simulations: D +13.7 to D +34.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +25.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +23.9
Polls
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23, 2026 | D +16 | 623 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23, 2026 | D +20 | 623 | lv |
| Suffolk University | Jun 12, 2026 | D +25 | 500 | rv |
| Suffolk University | Jun 12, 2026 | D +28 | 500 | rv |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 20, 2026 | D +23 | 603 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a safe Democratic state (D+28).
- Candidates
- Ed Markey (D) (inc.) John Deaton (R)