Massachusetts Senate
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+25.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+2.0
National Environment
current political climate
D+3.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+2.0
Forecasted margin
D+28.6
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University The Boston Globe | Oct 18, 2026 | D+28 | LV |
| YouGov UMass Amherst, WCVB-TV | Oct 12, 2026 | D+27 | RV |
| MassINC Polling Group Commonwealth Beacon | Sep 22, 2026 | D+26 | LV |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21, 2026 | D+23 | LV |
| University of New Hampshire 7News | Aug 24, 2026 | D+19 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+28 This is a safe Democrat state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Ed Markey (inc.)
Republican John Deaton