Massachusetts Senate

99%

Dem

1%GOP

Solid D

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +25.8·80% of simulations: D +14.1 to D +37.6

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D +25.2

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +1.7

National Environment

current political climate

D +1.8

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +0.5

Forecasted margin

D +25.8

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
University of New Hampshire	Apr 20, 2026	D +23	603	lv
University of New Hampshire	Apr 20, 2026	D +31	600	lv
University of New Hampshire	Feb 16, 2026	D +36	611	lv
University of New Hampshire	Feb 16, 2026	D +29	616	lv
Cygnal Political	Jan 25, 2026	D +24	800	lv

What Changes the Forecast

The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.

Forecast Over Time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 99%

R 1%

Race Details