New Mexico Senate
99%
Dem
1%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +17.7·80% of simulations: D +9.5 to D +25.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +6.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +6.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.2
Forecasted margin
D +17.7
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | Aug 28, 2026 | D +15 | 516 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- D+7 This state leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Ben Ray Lujan (inc.)
Republican Larry Marker