New Mexico Senate

100%

Dem

0%GOP

Solid D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+18.380% of simulations: D+11.6 to D+25.0

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D+6.6

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+5.9

National Environment

current political climate

D+5.9

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+0.1

Forecasted margin

D+18.3

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Research & Polling Inc. Albuquerque Journal	Oct 9, 2026	D+16	LV
SurveyUSA KOB-TV	Sep 30, 2026	D+18	LV
Research & Polling Inc. Albuquerque Journal	Aug 28, 2026	D+15	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 100%

GOP 0%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid D Inside Elections Solid D Sabato Safe D

PVI

D+7 This state leans Democrat.

Candidates

Democrat Ben Ray Lujan (inc.)

Republican Larry Marker