New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District

80%

Dem

20%GOP

Likely D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +7.9·80% of simulations: R +4.5 to D +20.3

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D +0.1

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +2.7

National Environment

current political climate

D +10.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

R +0.1

Forecasted margin

D +7.9

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
co/efficient	Apr 28, 2026	D +2	879	lv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 80%

GOP 20%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean D Inside Elections Tilt D Sabato Lean D

District lean

D+0 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.

Candidates

Democrat Gabe Vasquez (inc.)

Republican Greg Cunningham