New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District

87%

Dem

13%GOP

Likely D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+7.180% of simulations: R+1.2 to D+15.4

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D+0.1

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+4.4

National Environment

current political climate

D+12.5

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+1.1

Forecasted margin

D+7.1

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Research & Polling Inc. Albuquerque Journal	Oct 9, 2026	D+4	LV
SurveyUSA KOB-TV	Sep 2, 2026	D+3	LV
co/efficient NRCCRepublican	Apr 28, 2026	D+2	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 87%

GOP 13%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean D Inside Elections Tilt D Sabato Lean D

PVI

D+0 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.

Candidates

Democrat Gabe Vasquez (inc.)

Republican Greg Cunningham