New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District
96%
Dem
4%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +20.0·80% of simulations: D +5.8 to D +34.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +6.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +4.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +20.0
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 96%
GOP 4%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+7 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez (inc.)
Republican Martin Zamora