New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District
99%
Dem
1%GOP
▲ R+1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+6.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+3.2
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
R+0.9
Forecasted margin
D+19.7
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. Albuquerque Journal | Oct 9, 2026 | D+14 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+7 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez (inc.)
Republican Martin Zamora