New Mexico Governor
99%
Dem
1%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +16.9·80% of simulations: D +8.5 to D +25.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
D +8.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +3.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +2.7
Forecasted margin
D +16.9
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | Sep 30, 2026 | D +6 | 567 | lv |
| Research & Polling Inc. | Aug 28, 2026 | D +6 | 516 | lv |
| BSP Research | Aug 7, 2026 | D +17 | 800 | rv |
| McLaughlin & Associates | Jul 15, 2026 | D +1 | 400 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- State lean
- D+7 This state leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Deb Haaland
Republican Gregg Hull
- Seat context
- Open seat: Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited.