Virginia Senate
94%
Dem
6%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +16.1·80% of simulations: D +3.3 to D +29.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +6.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +6.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
D +16.1
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Responsive Management | Jan 15, 2025 | D +7 | 806 | a |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 94%
R 6%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans Democratic (D+7).
- Candidates
- Mark Warner (D) (inc.) Republican challenger pending