Virginia's 11th Congressional District
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+33.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+2.2
National Environment
current political climate
D+6.3
Polls
polling in similar districts
D+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+41.7
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+36 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat James Walkinshaw (inc.)
Republican Arthur Purves
- Seat context
- Special-election seat. Last filled in September 2025.