Virginia's 4th Congressional District
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+30.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+2.1
National Environment
current political climate
D+6.3
Polls
polling in similar districts
D+0.2
Forecasted margin
D+35.2
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+33 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jennifer McClellan (inc.)
Republican Robert Murray