Virginia's 2nd Congressional District
79%
Dem
21%GOP
▲ D+3% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+0.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+7.0
National Environment
current political climate
D+12.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
R+0.7
Forecasted margin
D+5.1
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Newport University | Oct 10, 2026 | D+3 | LV |
| Tulchin Research House Majority PACDemocratic | Jul 13, 2026 | Even | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 79%
GOP 21%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+0 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Elaine Luria
Republican Jennifer Kiggans (inc.)