Virginia's 2nd Congressional District
66%
Dem
34%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +3.8·80% of simulations: R +8.6 to D +16.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +0.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.2
Forecasted margin
D +3.8
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | Jul 13, 2026 | Even | 700 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 66%
GOP 34%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+0 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Elaine Luria
Republican Jennifer Kiggans (inc.)