Virginia's 2nd Congressional District
56%
Dem
44%GOP
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +1.3·80% of simulations: R +11.7 to D +14.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +0.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.4
Forecasted margin
D +1.3
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | Jul 13, 2026 | Even | 700 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 56%
GOP 44%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split district (D+0).
- Candidates
- Elaine Luria (D) Jennifer Kiggans (R) (inc.)