Virginia's 5th Congressional District

88%

GOP

12%Dem

Likely R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+6.380% of simulations: R+13.3 to D+0.7

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+10.4

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+6.3

National Environment

current political climate

D+9.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+0.8

Forecasted margin

R+6.3

What Changes the Forecast

Everything agrees. Politics may yet find a way to make this weird.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government	Sep 28, 2026	R+6	LV
Expedition Strategies Tom PerrielloDemocratic	Sep 24, 2026	D+2	LV
Expedition Strategies Tom PerrielloDemocratic	Sep 24, 2026	R+1	LV
Expedition Strategies Tom PerrielloDemocratic	Aug 1, 2026	R+3	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 12%

GOP 88%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Likely R Inside Elections Likely R Sabato Lean R

PVI

R+11 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Thomas Perriello

Republican John McGuire (inc.)