Virginia's 5th Congressional District
90%
GOP
10%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +11.1·80% of simulations: R +22.4 to D +0.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +10.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +9.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.7
Forecasted margin
R +11.1
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expedition Strategies | Aug 1, 2026 | R +3 | 602 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 10%
GOP 90%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+11 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Thomas Perriello
Republican John McGuire (inc.)