Virginia's 1st Congressional District
62%
GOP
38%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +3.3·80% of simulations: R +17.0 to D +10.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +4.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
R +3.3
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 12, 2026 | R +4 | 400 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 9, 2025 | Even | 541 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 9, 2025 | R +1 | 541 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 38%
R 62%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+5).
- Candidates
- Shannon Taylor (D) Robert Wittman (R) (inc.)