Virginia's 1st Congressional District

60%

Dem

40%GOP

Lean D

▲ D+3% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+1.080% of simulations: R+4.2 to D+6.3

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+4.8

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+5.9

National Environment

current political climate

D+11.7

Polls

recent state and district polling

Even

Forecasted margin

D+1.0

What Changes the Forecast

The national mood is doing most of the work. A big shift or some new polling might move it.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Public Policy Polling House Majority PACDemocratic	Oct 22, 2026	D+1	LV
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government	Sep 28, 2026	D+4	LV
DCCC Targeting TeamDemocratic	Sep 17, 2026	R+1	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 60%

GOP 40%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Tossup Inside Elections Lean R Sabato Tossup

PVI

R+5 This district leans Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Shannon Taylor

Republican Rob Wittman (inc.)