Virginia's 1st Congressional District
54%
GOP
46%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +0.8·80% of simulations: R +11.4 to D +9.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +4.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
R +0.8
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 12, 2026 | R +4 | 400 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 46%
GOP 54%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+5 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Shannon Taylor
Republican Robert Wittman (inc.)