Virginia's 1st Congressional District
65%
GOP
35%Dem
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +2.9·80% of simulations: R +15.1 to D +9.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +4.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
R +2.9
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 12, 2026 | R +4 | 400 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 9, 2025 | Even | 541 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 9, 2025 | R +1 | 541 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 35%
GOP 65%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+5).
- Candidates
- Shannon Taylor (D) Robert Wittman (R) (inc.)