Minnesota Senate

81%

Dem

19%GOP

Likely D

▲ R+1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+4.780% of simulations: R+2.5 to D+11.9

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D+4.6

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+4.5

National Environment

current political climate

D+6.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+1.7

Forecasted margin

D+4.7

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Trafalgar GroupRepublican	Oct 15, 2026	D+4	LV
SurveyUSA KSTP-TV	Oct 12, 2026	D+3	LV
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. KARE 11, Minnesota Star Tribune	Oct 7, 2026	D+4	LV
Morning Consult The Daily Agenda	Oct 7, 2026	D+4	RV
GQR Senate Majority PACDemocratic	Oct 4, 2026	D+9	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 81%

GOP 19%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean D Inside Elections Lean D Sabato Lean D

PVI

D+5 This state leans Democrat.

Candidates

Democrat Peggy Flanagan

Republican Michele Tafoya

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.