Minnesota Senate

92%

Dem

8%GOP

Likely D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +10.3·80% of simulations: D +1.2 to D +19.3

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D +4.6

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +1.3

National Environment

current political climate

D +5.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

R +0.9

Forecasted margin

D +10.3

What Changes the Forecast

We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
SurveyUSA	Aug 17, 2026	D +5	661	lv
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.	Jun 10, 2026	D +8	800	lv
Impact Research	May 28, 2026	D +7	808	lv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 92%

GOP 8%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Likely D Inside Elections Likely D Sabato Likely D

State lean

D+5 This state leans Democrat.

Candidates

Democrat Peggy Flanagan

Republican Michele Tafoya

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.