Minnesota Senate
93%
Dem
7%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +11.3·80% of simulations: R +0.1 to D +22.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +4.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +11.3
Polls
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | Jun 10, 2026 | D +8 | 800 | lv |
| Impact Research | May 28, 2026 | D +7 | 808 | lv |
| Emerson College | Feb 8, 2026 | D +6 | 1,000 | lv |
| Emerson College | Feb 8, 2026 | D +7 | 1,000 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Sep 16, 2025 | D +4 | 1,015 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 93%
GOP 7%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans Democratic (D+5).
- Candidates
- Peggy Flanagan (D) Adam Schwarze (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.