Minnesota Governor
99%
Dem
1%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +16.3·80% of simulations: D +7.9 to D +24.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
D +5.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +6.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +4.4
Forecasted margin
D +16.3
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | Oct 7, 2026 | D +9 | 1,000 | rv |
| co/efficient | Sep 15, 2026 | D +2 | 833 | lv |
| SurveyUSA | Sep 14, 2026 | D +7 | 654 | lv |
| TIPP Insights | Sep 2, 2026 | D +10 | 1,192 | lv |
| SurveyUSA | Aug 17, 2026 | D +16 | 661 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- State lean
- D+5 This state leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Amy Klobuchar
Republican Lisa Demuth
- Seat context
- Open seat: Tim Walz is not running again.