Minnesota's 5th Congressional District
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +58.5·80% of simulations: D +48.7 to D +68.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +58.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
D +58.5
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+64 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Ilhan Omar (inc.)
Republican John Nagel