Minnesota's 1st Congressional District
94%
GOP
6%Dem
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +12.1·80% of simulations: R +23.3 to R +0.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +10.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +12.1
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 14, 2026 | R +10 | 400 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Feb 3, 2026 | R +3 | 708 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 6%
GOP 94%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Jake Johnson (D) Brad Finstad (R) (inc.)