Minnesota's 1st Congressional District
72%
GOP
28%Dem
▲ D+10% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+10.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+4.6
National Environment
current political climate
D+9.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+2.3
Forecasted margin
R+3.1
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA ABC6 | Oct 9, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
| GBAO House Majority PACDemocratic | Sep 21, 2026 | D+1 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 28%
GOP 72%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+11 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jake Johnson
Republican Brad Finstad (inc.)