Minnesota's 1st Congressional District
84%
GOP
16%Dem
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +8.6·80% of simulations: R +20.2 to D +3.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +10.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +8.6
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 14, 2026 | R +10 | 400 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 16%
GOP 84%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+11 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jake Johnson
Republican Brad Finstad (inc.)