Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District
97%
Dem
3%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+5.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+2.4
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
R+0.4
Forecasted margin
D+14.4
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research Matt LittleDemocratic | Sep 13, 2026 | D+12 | LV |
| Harper Polling Eric PrattRepublican | Jun 21, 2026 | D+5 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 97%
GOP 3%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+6 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Matt Little
Republican Eric Pratt
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.