Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District

95%

Dem

5%GOP

Likely D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +14.3·80% of simulations: D +3.3 to D +25.3

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D +5.7

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +0.9

National Environment

current political climate

D +9.7

Polls

recent state and district polling

R +0.2

Forecasted margin

D +14.3

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Harper Polling	Jun 21, 2026	D +5	415	lv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 95%

GOP 5%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Likely D Inside Elections Likely D Sabato Likely D

District lean

D+6 This district leans Democrat.

Candidates

Democrat Matt Little

Republican Eric Pratt

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.