Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District
99%
Dem
1%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +25.0·80% of simulations: D +14.1 to D +36.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +19.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +25.0
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+21 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Kelly Morrison (inc.)
Republican Tyler Bass