Nebraska Senate

91%

GOP

9%Ind

Likely R

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +14.2·80% of simulations: R +27.6 to R +0.7

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +18.5

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +2.0

National Environment

current political climate

D +2.0

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +0.4

Forecasted margin

R +14.1

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Impact Research	Feb 5, 2026	R +1	600	lv
Lake Research Partners	Dec 17, 2025	R +1	900	lv
Lake Research Partners	Jul 29, 2025	D +1	900	lv
Change Research	Apr 1, 2025	R +1	524	lv

What Changes the Forecast

The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.

Forecast Over Time

I (purple) and R (red) win probability over time

I 9%

R 91%

Race Details