Nebraska Senate

94%

GOP

6%Ind

Likely R

▲ I +1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +12.4·80% of simulations: R +24.3 to R +0.5

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +18.5

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

I +2.4

National Environment

current political climate

I +3.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

I +0.1

Forecasted margin

R +12.4

Polls

Polls (4)

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Impact Research	Feb 5, 2026	R +1	600	lv
Lake Research Partners	Dec 17, 2025	R +1	900	lv
Lake Research Partners	Jul 29, 2025	I +1	900	lv
Change Research	Apr 1, 2025	R +1	524	lv

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Forecast Over Time

Ind (purple) and GOP (red) win probability over time

Ind 6%

GOP 94%

Race Details