Nebraska Senate

73%

GOP

27%Ind

Lean R

▲ I+3% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+3.480% of simulations: R+10.5 to D+3.8

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+18.5

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

I+5.3

National Environment

current political climate

I+3.8

Polls

recent state and district polling

I+6.0

Forecasted margin

R+3.4

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
GBAO Working Class Majority PAC	Oct 22, 2026	I+1	LV
Impact Research Dan Osborn	Oct 20, 2026	R+2	LV
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PACRepublican	Oct 18, 2026	R+3	LV
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PACRepublican	Oct 5, 2026	R+3	LV
YouGov	Oct 3, 2026	I+1	LV

Forecast Over Time

Ind (purple) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Ind 27%

GOP 73%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Likely R Inside Elections Lean R Sabato Lean R

PVI

R+21 This is a safe Republican state.

Candidates

Independent Dan Osborn

Republican Pete Ricketts (inc.)