Nebraska Governor
97%
GOP
3%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +12.9·80% of simulations: R +21.3 to R +4.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +17.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +11.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +10.8
Forecasted margin
R +12.9
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Oct 3, 2026 | R +1 | 1,808 | lv |
| co/efficient | Sep 30, 2026 | R +4 | 1,113 | lv |
| co/efficient | Sep 30, 2026 | R +5 | 1,113 | lv |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 16, 2026 | R +17 | 500 | lv |
| Lake Research Partners | Sep 14, 2026 | Even | 900 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 3%
GOP 97%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+21 This is a safe Republican state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Lynne Walz
Republican Jim Pillen (inc.)