Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District

93%

Dem

7%GOP

Likely D

▲ D+1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+12.580% of simulations: D+1.7 to D+23.2

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D+4.6

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+3.7

National Environment

current political climate

D+11.8

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+0.2

Forecasted margin

D+12.5

What Changes the Forecast

We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PACRepublican	Oct 5, 2026	D+12	LV
SurveyUSA Grant Forbes	Sep 13, 2026	D+4	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 93%

GOP 7%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Likely D Inside Elections Lean D Sabato Likely D

PVI

D+5 This district leans Democrat.

Candidates

Democrat Denise Powell

Republican Brinker Harding

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.