Nebraska's 1st Congressional District
94%
GOP
6%Dem
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +16.8·80% of simulations: R +33.0 to R +0.7
Austin Ahlman is running in this race as an independent. Solid Purple's model forecasts two-way contests, so the numbers above reflect only the Democratic and Republican candidates and do not account for a third candidate. We know this is a limitation of the model. If Ahlman emerges as the leading challenger, or this becomes a competitive three-way, we will update the forecast.
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +11.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +10.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +16.8
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 6%
GOP 94%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+13).
- Candidates
- Christopher Backemeyer (D) Mike Flood (R) (inc.)