Nebraska's 1st Congressional District
87%
GOP
13%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +14.8·80% of simulations: R +32.2 to D +2.5
Austin Ahlman is running in this race as an independent. Solid Purple's model forecasts two-way contests, so the numbers above reflect only the Democratic and Republican candidates and do not account for a third candidate. We know this is a limitation of the model. If Ahlman emerges as the leading challenger, or this becomes a competitive three-way, we will update the forecast.
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +11.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +11.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +14.8
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 13%
GOP 87%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+13 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Christopher Backemeyer
Republican Mike Flood (inc.)