Nebraska's 1st Congressional District

87%

GOP

13%Dem

Likely R

▲ D+5% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+8.580% of simulations: R+18.2 to D+1.2

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+11.6

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+7.7

National Environment

current political climate

D+9.1

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+1.7

Forecasted margin

R+8.5

What Changes the Forecast

We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Global Strategy Group Fight for Nebraska PACDemocratic	Sep 3, 2026	D+4	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 13%

GOP 87%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Likely R Inside Elections Likely R Sabato Likely R

PVI

R+13 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Christopher Backemeyer

Republican Mike Flood (inc.)