Arkansas Senate

100%

GOP

0%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+17.380% of simulations: R+24.4 to R+10.3

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+27.6

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+1.9

National Environment

current political climate

D+3.4

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+8.8

Forecasted margin

R+17.3

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Hendrix College Talk Business & Politics	Oct 13, 2026	R+9	LV
GrayHouse America One PoliciesRepublican	Oct 4, 2026	R+11	LV
J.L. Partners	Aug 18, 2026	R+16	LV
Hendrix College Talk Business & Politics	Aug 12, 2026	D+3	LV
2040 Strategy Group Hallie ShoffnerDemocratic	Jul 25, 2026	R+3	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 0%

GOP 100%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

PVI

R+31 This is a safe Republican state.

Candidates

Democrat Hallie Shoffner

Republican Tom Cotton (inc.)