Arkansas Senate
99%
GOP
1%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +16.8·80% of simulations: R +25.2 to R +8.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +27.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +7.2
Forecasted margin
R +16.8
What Changes the Forecast
The polls are at odds with the fundamentals. We need a little more of everything.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.L. Partners | Aug 18, 2026 | R +16 | 803 | lv |
| Hendrix College | Aug 12, 2026 | D +3 | 1,217 | lv |
| 2040 Strategy Group | Jul 25, 2026 | R +3 | 586 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 1%
GOP 99%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- R+31 This is a safe Republican state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Hallie Shoffner
Republican Tom Cotton (inc.)