Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District
89%
GOP
11%Dem
▲ D+1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+15.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+4.3
National Environment
current political climate
D+7.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+2.8
Forecasted margin
R+9.3
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Poll Vault | Oct 14, 2026 | R+4 | LV |
| Hendrix College Talk Business & Politics | Aug 12, 2026 | D+4 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 11%
GOP 89%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+17 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Chris Jones
Republican French Hill (inc.)