Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District

92%

GOP

8%Dem

Likely R

▲ R +2% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +12.1·80% of simulations: R +23.2 to R +1.1

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +15.6

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +7.9

National Environment

current political climate

D +6.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +4.8

Forecasted margin

R +12.1

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Hendrix College	Aug 12, 2026	D +4	1,112	lv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 8%

GOP 92%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

District lean

R+17 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Chris Jones

Republican French Hill (inc.)