Arkansas Governor
99%
GOP
1%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +25.7·80% of simulations: R +36.2 to R +15.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +25.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +7.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +2.8
Forecasted margin
R +25.7
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College | Aug 12, 2026 | R +5 | 1,217 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 1%
GOP 99%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+31 This is a safe Republican state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Fred Love
Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders (inc.)