Iowa Senate
66%
GOP
34%Dem
▲ R +4% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +2.5·80% of simulations: R +10.6 to D +5.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +11.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +2.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.4
Forecasted margin
R +2.5
What Changes the Forecast
The polls are at odds with the fundamentals. We need a little more of everything.
Polls
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Sep 1, 2026 | R +4 | 750 | lv |
| Wedgewood Polls | Aug 29, 2026 | R +2 | 600 | lv |
| Abacus Data | Aug 28, 2026 | D +7 | 323 | lv |
| Suffolk University | Aug 23, 2026 | R +5 | 500 | lv |
| Emerson College | Aug 4, 2026 | R +2 | 712 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 34%
GOP 66%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- R+12 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Josh Turek
Republican Ashley Hinson
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.