Iowa Senate

51%

Dem

49%GOP

Tossup

▲ R+2% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+0.180% of simulations: R+7.1 to D+7.3

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+11.0

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+3.5

National Environment

current political climate

D+4.9

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+2.7

Forecasted margin

D+0.1

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
InsiderAdvantage	Oct 22, 2026	R+2	LV
co/efficient	Oct 19, 2026	R+3	LV
Trafalgar GroupRepublican	Oct 15, 2026	R+2	LV
New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group Cook Political Report	Oct 13, 2026	D+2	LV
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PACRepublican	Oct 12, 2026	R+1	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 51%

GOP 49%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Tossup Inside Elections Tilt R Sabato Tossup

PVI

R+12 This state leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Josh Turek

Republican Ashley Hinson

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.