Iowa Senate

75%

GOP

25%Dem

Lean R

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +6.5·80% of simulations: R +19.4 to D +6.4

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +11.0

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +1.0

National Environment

current political climate

D +2.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +0.9

Forecasted margin

R +6.5

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Public Policy Polling	Jun 4, 2026	Even	557	rv
Echelon Insights	Apr 9, 2026	D +1	377	lv
GBAO	Mar 16, 2026	R +4	1,200	lv

What Changes the Forecast

The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.

Forecast Over Time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 25%

R 75%

Race Details