Iowa Senate
71%
GOP
29%Dem
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +3.9·80% of simulations: R +15.0 to D +7.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +11.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.1
Forecasted margin
R +3.9
Polls
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 27, 2026 | R +2 | 600 | lv |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Jun 27, 2026 | D +4 | 1,003 | rv |
| Cygnal | Jun 19, 2026 | R +2 | 600 | lv |
| Global Strategy Group | Jun 11, 2026 | D +2 | 1,000 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jun 4, 2026 | Even | 557 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The polls are at odds with the fundamentals. We need a little more of everything.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 29%
GOP 71%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+12).
- Candidates
- Josh Turek (D) Ashley Hinson (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.