Iowa's 2nd Congressional District
66%
GOP
34%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +3.6·80% of simulations: R +15.7 to D +8.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +7.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +3.6
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 14, 2026 | D +3 | 673 | rv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 34%
GOP 66%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+9 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Lindsay James
Republican Joe Mitchell
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.