Iowa's 2nd Congressional District
62%
Dem
38%GOP
▲ D+8% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+7.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+1.2
National Environment
current political climate
D+10.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.4
Forecasted margin
D+1.9
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Poll Vault | Oct 14, 2026 | D+3 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 62%
GOP 38%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+9 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Lindsay James
Republican Joe Mitchell
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.